Brief Contents 1 Introduction to Decision Analysis 1 Section 1 Modeling Decisions 19 2 3 4 5 6 Elements of Decision Problems 21 Structuring Decisions 43 Making Choices 111 Sensitivity Analysis 174 Creativity and Decision Making 217 Section 2 Modeling Uncertainty 247 7 8 9 10 11 12 Probability Basics 249 Subjective Probability 295 Theoretical Probability Models 352 Using Data 398 Monte Carlo Simulation 459 Value of Information 496 Section 3 Modeling Preferences 13 14 15 16 17 525 Risk Attitudes 527 Utility Axioms, Paradoxes, and Implications 571 Conflicting Objectives I: Fundamental Objectives and the Additive Utility Function 598 Conflicting Objectives II: Multiattribute Utility Models with Interactions 644 Conclusion and Further Reading 675 Appendixes 679 Answers to Selected Exercises 719 Credits 721 Author Index 722 Subject Index 725 Contents Preface xxi Chapter 1 Introduction to Decision Analysis 1 GYPSY MOTHS AND THE ODA 1 Why Are Decisions Hard? 2 Why Study Decision Analysis? 3 Subjective Judgments and Decision Making 5 The Decision-Analysis Process 5 Requisite Decision Models 8 Where Is Decision Analysis Used? 8 Where Does the Software Fit In? 9 Where Are We Going from Here? 11 Summary 11 Questions and Problems 11 Case Studies: Dr.
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